Almost any time Jeff Bezos speaks he is able to deconstruct complex economic, business and management issues to their core principles, leaving those paying attention with invaluable nuggets of wisdom. In a recent blog post, Bill Gurley of Benchmark Capital referenced one of Bezos' best pieces of advice. The quote is as follows,
“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two — because you can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. … [I]n our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that’s going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection. It’s impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, ‘Jeff I love Amazon; I just wish the prices were a little higher,’ [or] ‘I love Amazon; I just wish you’d deliver a little more slowly.’ Impossible. And so the effort we put into those things, spinning those things up, we know the energy we put into it today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”
Invest in things that you know are not going to change in ten years. I submit that this would be a very useful exercise for politicians to attempt as well. Like in business, if you know what American's are still going to want 10 years from now you can invest heavily in those areas. As a qualifier, I would add that the key word in this exercise is "invest," not "spend."
Below in no particular order a brief list of four things that will not change in America over the next 10 years and warrant significant investment.
American's will want their children to receive and exceptional education. This one is important for two reasons, 1) A democracy cannot function without a well-educated citizenry 2) As technology continues to eliminate jobs the US is going to need a greater percentage of skilled workers in order to retain its position as the world's strongest and most innovative nation. This means reevaluating education from the ground up to ensure that all children have access to a world-class education regardless of class, gender, race, etc. It means making sure that everyone has access to a college education at a reasonable cost and that the nature of education has to evolve with the times. I would like to see computer science become compulsory (like learning a new language) and for technology to facilitate a more personalized learning experience for students while making access to high-quality education more readily available.
American's will still want to feel safe. A strong national defense is one of the pillars our country was built on, and the government should invest heavily in ensuring that her citizens are protected from all threats, both foreign and domestic. This means committing a significant amount of time and money to both our traditional armed forces as well as our nation's cyber defenses, which are quickly becoming the premiere battlefield globally. It will require collaboration between the government and our nation's leading technologists and tech companies to ensure that our continued dominance in the 21st Century. These parties are going to have to reconcile their differences and come to agreements about what types of policies are in America's best interest. For the government that means a more transparent and less intrusive domestic surveillance policy and for tech companies and ordinary Americans it means understanding that we all have a reasonable expectation to privacy, not an absolute expectation.
America will want to attract the world's brightest immigrants. I think Paul Graham did an outstanding job of explaining why this is so important, but I will summarize here. Paul argues that because the US only represents about 5% of the world's population it is reasonable to assume that 95% of the world's greatest scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs are born outside the US. As technology continues to creep into the darkest corners of the world and billions of people come online it is in our best interest to be the place that any young, smart ambitious entrepreneur wants to live. This is important because 1) Any current technology executive will tell you that there is a severe talent shortage, which is being magnified by an ineffective immigration policy and 2) Because in order for the US to remain a hub for innovation we need to attract as many high-quality thinkers
American's will want an economy that is growing sustainably. This is one of the trickiest topics to discuss because not only does everyone and their mother have an opinion about how to achieve sustainable growth, but the nature of work is undergoing a major transformation as software continues to eat the world. Generally speaking I believe that if you attract the smartest people, create the right incentives and introduce a regulatory framework that makes starting and growing a business as easy as possible you will end up with a positive outcome over the long run.